The spot dollar closed above 5 reais on Thursday, in line with the almost general advance of the US currency abroad, in a session also marked by the dispute among investors on the domestic market over the formation of the Ptax rate on the last day of the month and quarter.
The cash dollar ended the day at 5.0156 reais, up 0.70%. Since March 18, when it closed at 5.0254 reais, the US currency has not closed the day above the psychological line of 5.00 reais.
In March, the US currency accumulated a gain of 0.88% and, this week, a gain of 0.34%.
At 5.27pm, on B3, the dollar futures contract for May rose 0.56% to 5.0305 reais on sale.
Due to the holiday on Friday, this Thursday’s session was the last of the month and quarter, which attracted investors interested in establishing Ptax to the business.
The Ptax is an exchange rate calculated by the Central Bank on the basis of spot market prices and which serves as a reference for the settlement of futures contracts. At the end of each month, financial agents usually try to direct it towards more convenient levels for their positions, whether they are long (in the direction of rising prices) or sold in dollars (in the direction of falling).
The dispute over Ptax brought the spot dollar close to stability at the end of the morning, with short sellers trying to hold prices despite upward pressure from abroad. At 11:11 the spot dollar reached the minimum exchange rate of 4.9798 reais (-0.01%).
After the formation of the Ptax in the early afternoon (at 4.9962 reais on sale), the dollar became freer to swing and accelerated gains, in line with the outside.
Abroad, the US currency appreciated against most other currencies following statements made by a Federal Reserve official the day before.
On Wednesday evening, Fed Director Christopher Waller said there was “no rush” to cut U.S. interest rates at this time. Furthermore, he stressed that delaying the start of rate cuts will likely affect the easing that will occur in 2024.
“It makes sense to reduce the overall number of rate cuts or move them further into the future in response to recent data,” Waller said.
Waller’s comments, considered tough on inflation, gave strength to the dollar, even against the real. At 4.45pm the spot dollar reached a high of 5.0191 reais (+0.78%).
“The perception of the resilience of the American economy permeated the trading session from the beginning, cooling the prospect of a sharper cut in interest rates a little further,” commented the director of the currency consultancy FB Capital, Fernando Bergallo.
As of 5.24pm, the dollar index – which measures the performance of the US currency against a basket of six currencies – rose 0.13% to 104.560.
As well as abroad, Brazilian investors monitored the publication of the BC Inflation Report and the press conference of the president of the institute, Roberto Campos Neto, held in Sao Paulo.
In the document, the monetary authority reiterated the latest inflation warnings in Brazil and raised its gross domestic product (GDP) growth projection in 2024 from 1.7% to 1.9%.
In the morning the BC sold all 16,000 traditional currency swap contracts offered for the renewal of the June maturities.
Source: Terra
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