Economists consulted by the Central Bank on Tuesday reduced their inflation projections for the end of this year and next, at the same time as they raised their forecasts for economic growth in 2024.
The weekly Focus survey, which captures the market’s perception of economic indicators, now shows an expectation that the IPCA will rise 3.75% this year, versus a previous inflation projection of 3.79%. For 2025 the bill fell to 3.51%, compared to the previously estimated 3.52% inflation.
The center of the official target for inflation in 2024, 2025 and 2026 is 3.00%, always with a margin of tolerance of 1.5 percentage points more or less.
This Focus’s inflation revisions come after the BC chose to adopt a more conservative stance in its monetary policy statement last week, anticipating a half-percentage-point cut in the Selic rate only at its next meeting.
From the minutes of the latest meeting of the college it emerged this Tuesday that some members of the Monetary Policy Committee (Copom) assess that a reduction in the pace of interest cuts may be necessary if uncertainties remain high.
Focus’ outlook for the Selic rate remains at 9.00% for the end of 2024 and 8.50% for the end of 2025, unchanged from the previous week.
On activity, the median projection of economists consulted by the BC was for gross domestic product (GDP) growth of 1.85% this year, versus a 1.80% increase previously expected. For 2025, the expansion expectation of 2.00% was maintained.
Source: Terra
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